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Few stories of recent Midwestern lore are remembered with as much fondness as the earthquake forecast episode of 1990. Or is that embarrassment? Like those people who went looking for Martians during the radio broadcast of “War of the Worlds,” one can never tell, and the number of true believers seems to grow larger with every telling despite the apparent humiliation involved with falling for such a far-fetched story.
The central figure in this story was an eccentric septuagenarian and autodidact inventor named Iben Browning. Browning had a Ph. D. in zoology, taught himself climatology, and fancied himself a futurist, though his early record of forecasting was not fruitful. Among other things, Browning argued during the 1960s that attaching electrodes to the brains of whales would allow them to be controlled as a delivery method for nuclear weapons. He later warned NASA that moon landings would be impossible because of the vast accumulation of dust on the surface.
Fortunately for his career Browning soon found an audience of more gullible marks—business executives. His consulting firm and companion newsletter usually focused on the effects of climate on global food production, although by the mid-1980's he had become interested in geological events even though he had no background in the earth sciences. At a business conference in October 1989, Browning claimed to have successfully predicted the recent Loma Prieta earthquake and, flush with his proclaimed success, issued another prediction: There was a 50-50 chance, he said, that a similar quake would strike in the New Madrid Seismic Zone on or around December 3, 1990.
At first, the scientific community paid Browning little heed. His premise that a combinationn of lunar alignment and tidal pressures could cause earthquakes was dismissed as discredited pseudoscience, and it was held as an iron law of seismology that no one could predict quakes with such precision. The tactic of ignoring Browning turned out to be a major miscalculation, however. The eccentric and his prediction soon became a major media phenomenon. News outlets from USA Today to ABC News and many in between descended on the small town of New Madrid, MO in anticipation of the “Big One,” usually disseminating Browning's claims with childlike credulity. Earthquake fever had gripped the Midwest.
Popular belief in Browning's forecast was not without some foundation, however. It was true that seismologists had become interested in the New Madrid fault system again in the mid-1980s. This fault had produced three major earthquakes in 1811 and 1812 estimated at roughly 8.0 on the modern Richter scale which permanently changed the course of the Mississippi Rivers. Furthermore, many geologists warned that increased activity in the region could cause additional significant earthquakes in the coming decades. Furthermore, there was Browning's claim to have successfully predicted the Loma Prieta earthquake of October 1989 which was usually reported uncritically by the media. Actually, Browning had only made an ambiguous statement at a September business meeting about some future geological activity which became embellished to extreme levels of specificity after the fact. Finally, a moderate 4.9 earthquake struck the Cape Girardeau, MO area on September 26, 1990, further inflaming the quake paranoia.
As the days grew closer, schools and businesses in the Midwest closed, survivalists stocked up on food and water, and local newspapers printed earthquake survival guides from the Red Cross. Finally, seismology experts struck back with their own media blitz, loudly and repeatedly denouncing Browning's claim to scientific credibility. The campaign had some effect as by late November Browning's daughter told the press that her father had begun backpedaling on his prediction, saying instead that an earthquake was just as likely to happen in Tokyo. At the same time, an Indiana University poll showed only 18 percent of Hoosiers believed an earthquake on December 3rd was “very likely” to happen.
As we all know, the magic date came and went with no earthquake, though many people still made preparations just in case. The author remembers his elementary school moving classes out of the basement as a precaution. Despite the embarrassment, the Great Quake Hoax has had many lasting positive effects on the Midwest. Many in the area realized how little they understood earthquakes, and how important that knowledge was considering their history and possible future. Much of the infrastructure and emergency response procedures which were woefully under prepared for a major earthquake were brought to the attention of the public. As for Iben Browning, he didn't have to live long in his ignominy, dying of a heart attack in July 1991.
